Thursday 19 December 2019
Met Office: 2020 to be one of the warmest years on record
Next year is predicted to be another of the hottest on record, with global temperatures forecast to be more than 1.1 °C above the pre-industrial average, according to estimates from the Met Office.
The series of warmest years began in 2015; the first year when global temperatures exceeded 1.0 °C above the pre-industrial period (1850-1900).
The warmest year on record was in 2016, when significant El Niño-related warming in the tropical Pacific boosted the global temperature. 2020 is projected to be another very warm year, but this time without a strong El Niño signal.
The Met Office forecasts the global average temperature for 2020 to be between 0.99 °C and 1.23 °C - with a central estimate of 1.11 °C - above the pre-industrial average period from 1850–1900. Since 1850, 2016 was the warmest year on record with a central estimate of 1.16 °C above the same baseline.
In the absence of strong El Niño-induced warming in the Pacific, rising levels of greenhouse gases are driving the 2020 temperature forecast.
Professor Adam Scaife, the Met Office head of long-range prediction, said: “Natural events, such as El Niño-induced warming in the Pacific, influence the climate system, but in the absence of El Niño, this forecast gives a clear picture of the strongest factor causing temperatures to rise: greenhouse gas emissions.”
The forecast is based on the key drivers of the global climate, but it doesn’t include unpredictable events, such as a large volcanic eruption, which would cause a temporary cooling.
Dr Nick Dunstone, an expert in climate variability at the Met Office, said: “Although the Earth has warmed by about 1.0 °C on average since pre-industrial times, this isn’t spread evenly over the surface of the globe as much of the warming is occurring in the Arctic and over land masses. This was a feature of climate change that was predicted at the time of the launch of the Met Office Hadley Centre and the publication of the first IPCC report thirty years ago.”
