That’s according to modelling conducted by Cornwall Insight, featured in its quarterly GB Benchmark Power Curve report, which suggests offshore wind capacity is expected to increase from 12.5GW in 2023-24 to 47.1GW in 2030, narrowly missing the government’s 2030 target.
The report attributes delays in offshore wind deployment in the short to medium term to rising costs.
This trend was evident in the fifth Contracts for Difference (CfD) auction round, where no offshore wind projects participated.
The slower progress in offshore wind may lead to increased carbon emissions, reducing the likelihood of meeting carbon reduction goals and potentially extending the time required to achieve net zero emissions, according to the report.
A Department for Energy Security and Net Zero spokesperson told Energy Live News: “We reject this analysis and remain fully committed to our ambition of 50GW of offshore wind by 2030.
“The UK is a world leader in the technology, with the five largest operational wind farms in the world off UK shores – providing enough capacity to power the equivalent of at least ten million homes per year.
“Our Contracts for Difference scheme is a UK success story, having contracted more than 30GW of capacity, including 20GW of offshore wind, since 2014.”