Thursday 8 September 2016

Gas system oversupplied – DMR

The UK gas system has opened oversupplied today.

That’s due to increased gas flows at 207mcm against a 10-day average of 196mcm, according to npower’s daily market report.

Amardeep Ubhi from the Optimisation Desk said: “This has led to softer gas prices on front month and flat to firm on the front two seasons. Flows from Langeled have increased compared to the last couple of days, flowing at more than 27mcm. Exports through the IUK are flowing to the continent at the highest level so far this week at 54mcm.”

There are two LNG tankers due to dock at South Hook; Lijmiliya on 11th September and Al Samriya on 14th September.

Mr Ubhi added: “The power market is yet to going but with gas as the marginal fuel for power, we would expect gas prices to provide an indication for power.”

[youtube url="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=scTtjZiuBvU" width="575" height="323"]

 

The peak power margins are comfortable today at 15GW.

This is helped by gas-powered generation, providing 55% or 18.6GW to the generation stack whilst nuclear is providing just under 8GW.

Wind production has increased from yesterday’s levels, providing 8% or 2.7GW to the stack. Whilst it is still out-turning below forecast, it should ramp up through the day. Solar generation is forecast to peak at its highest so far this week at just under 5.5GW but will decrease going into the weekend.

Mr Ubhi went on: “Oil advanced as weekly industry data showed US crude inventories declined, trimming supplies that are at the highest seasonal level in at least 30 years. API data showed crude stocks plunged by 12.1 million barrels compared with expectations of an increase around 200,000 barrels. We await official data from the U.S. government today at 4pm to confirm this. Oil is currently trading at $48.69/bbl (£65/bbl)."