The UK could face a loss of more than £65 million annually in central heating boiler and parts exports by the year 2030 if the transition to clean heating solutions is not expedited.

This sobering prediction could lead to a cumulative £1.3 billion export loss between 2030 and 2050, according to a new analysis by the Energy and Climate Intelligence Unit (ECIU).

the UK’s central heating boiler exports have dropped significantly, falling from about £150 million in 2019 to around £85 million in 2022, according to the report.

Nearly 77% of these exports, roughly £65 million, went to countries planning to stop using fossil fuel boilers in the next seven years.

Experts think this decline might be connected to the global shift away from gas boilers. This change is due to high gas prices, concerns about gas supply linked to events like the situation in Ukraine, and the urgent goal of reducing carbon emissions for net zero targets.

Commenting on the analysis, Jess Ralston, Energy Analyst at the ECIU said: “The International Monetary Fund has said that the UK was worst hit by the gas crisis because we are so dependent on it and the Office for Budget Responsibility has shown that we could add 13% GDP to debt if we don’t transition away.

“The North Sea is a declining basin no matter what the government policy on it, so unless we reduce our gas demand through insulation and heat pumps, we’re going to end up importing more from abroad.”