Hydrogen is expected to have a limited role in future heat scenarios.

That’s according to an update of bp’s Energy Outlook 2023, which predicts that energy use in buildings in developed economies is set to decline across all scenarios due to increasing energy efficiency measures.

The predicted decline in energy use is largely attributed to a range of energy conservation measures, including improved insulation, the implementation of smart meters and changes in resident behaviours.

Additionally, the use of more efficient appliances, including heating and cooling systems, contributes to the reduction in energy consumption.

The report emphasises that the increased utilisation of solar thermal energy and waste heat through heat networks also plays a significant role in reducing the need for other energy sources.

One notable trend highlighted in the Energy Outlook is the gradual electrification of the fuel mix in developed regions. This shift is primarily driven by the displacement of gas boilers by heat pumps.

Alongside the rise of heat pumps, the share of heat derived from district heat networks and modern bioenergy, such as biomethane and biomass like wood pellets, is expected to increase in all scenarios.