Monday 5 September 2016

Gas system short – DMR

Gas system short – DMR

The gas system has opened short today, according to npower’s daily market report.

It is also forecast to close 47mcm short due to an increase in demand.

Flows from Bacton Seal have been reduced by 10mcm for around eight hours and St Fergus flows have also been cut whilst Norwegian flows have been reduced by 8mcm. Exports to the continent through the IUK interconnector are flowing at just under 53mcm.

The peak power margin is “fairly comfortable” at 12GW, said Amardeep Ubhi from the Optimisation Desk.

Wind generation is currently out-turning at 2GW and is forecast to ramp up to more than 3GW as the day goes on.

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CCGT is providing 18GW and nuclear is providing just under 9GW. Solar generation is a little subdued today, forecast at under 3GW but is expected to ramp up during the week.

Mr Ubhi added: “Brent oil has climbed this morning, around 70c in 10 minutes as the dollar lost its momentum. Persistent concerns over a global supply glut may cap gains despite signs producers may try to tackle weak oil futures. Iran, OPEC's third largest producer, has said it would only co-operate in talks to freeze output if fellow exporters recognised its right to fully regain market share.

“Morgan Stanley has released a note with their opinion being that it would likely be a short term positive if OPEC agreed a production freeze. They believe oil prices would rise on the news but would do little to correct the near term oversupply. Oil is currently trading at $47.67/bbl (£35.8/bbl).”

Written by

Bruna Pinhoni

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