Thursday 12 May 2016

Gas system undersupplied – DMR

The UK gas system has opened “massively” undersupplied today.

The linepack is forecast to close 22mcm short despite demand being low, according to npower’s daily market report.

Norwegian flows through the Langeled pipeline are at 15mcm and exports from the UK Interconnector are at 35mcm contributing to the system’s shortfall.

Medium-range storage (MRS) sites are expected to withdraw today to bring some balance to the system.

Gemma Bruce from the Optimisation Desk said: “Temperatures are expected to be above seasonal normal levels next week, being slightly below at the moment. This new forecast is not pressuring prices as fundamentals are tighter.”

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On the power system, the peak margin is at 11GW. Wind is generating 2.9GW and is forecast to reach 3.9GW.

CCGT is providing almost 55% of the energy mix and coal is contributing 6%.

The French interconnector is importing at full capacity while the Dutch one is “slowly coming back after no activity yesterday”.

Oil is trading at $47.6/bbl (£32.8/bbl).

Ms Bruce added: "Crude oil prices jumped yesterday afternoon after the Energy Information Administration published its report for the week ending May the 6th and US stockpiles decreased by 3.4 million barrels to 540 million barrels which was not expected by the market. This decrease is the first stock decline for five weeks. Nevertheless, US crude oil inventories are at historically high levels for this time of the year."